Friday, March 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. World investors are in upbeat moods to end the trading week, after the U.S. weekly jobless claims report on Thursday morning suggested the world’s largest economy is rapidly breaking out of its pandemic shackles.
In overnight news, German business sentiment up-ticked in March, beating expectations. The Ifo business climate index came in at 96.6 in March from 92.7 in February and expectations for a reading of 93.0.
The world continues to watch as Egypt tries to float a massive container ship wedged between the Suez Canal, but so far with no success.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker after hitting a 4.5-month high on Thursday. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $60.00 a barrel but the oil market bulls are still on the ropes after recent steep losses. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 1.636%.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, advance economic indicators and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,944.50 and then at the contract high of 3,978.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,875.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,832.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,881.00 and then at 13,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,609.75 and then at 12,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 156 19/32 and then at this week’s high of 157 8/32. Shorter-term support lies at 155 even and then at this week’s low of 154 10/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 132.00.0 and then at the overnight high of 132.04.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.14.0 and then at this week’s low of 131.07.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and still have some momentum. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 1.1847 and then at 1.1873. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1780 and then at 1.1750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated, to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $61.00 and then at $62.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $58.32 and then at this week’s low of $57.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures are weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. The higher U.S. dollar index this week is keeping grain market bulls constrained. Grain traders await the very important USDA planting intentions and quarterly grains stocks reports next Wednesday. Trading is likely to remain quieter ahead of that data. Grain market bulls do still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Grain traders also need to keep an eye on crude oil prices. If crude continues to slide many raw commodity markets may do the same.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff