Friday, November 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor attitudes in the U.S. late this week are slightly upbeat after a better-than-expected U.S. retail sales report for October that was released Wednesday. However, enthusiasm was blunted Thursday by hawkish rhetoric coming from U.S. Federal Reserve officials, who ostensibly said the U.S. economy needs to dip into recession for a while in order to fully tamp down problematic inflation.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are lower, hit a five-week low overnight, and are trading around $81.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.799%.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes existing home sales and leading economic indicators.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,000.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,050.75. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,912.50 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the 12,000.00 and then at this week’s high of 12,118.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,528.25 and then at 11,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 126 27/32 and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at 125 even and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.25.5 and then at this week’s high of 113.11.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 111.27.0 and then at 111.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 1.0429 and then at this week’s high of 1.0508. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0297 and then at 1.0250. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $83.00 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were firmer in overnight trading. Corn and soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Wheat bears have the near-term technical advantage. Grain traders will continue to watch the key outside markets closely: the U.S. dollar index, crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes. Those markets are in an overall neutral posture for the grains Friday morning.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff