Thursday, October 26–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
The U.S. data point of the day Thursday is the first estimate of the third-quarter GDP, seen coming in at up 4.7%, year-on-year, versus a rise of 2.1% in the second quarter. Inflation readings in the GDP data will also be closely examined.
Meantime, the European Central Bank holds its regular monetary policy meeting today. The ECB is expected to pause today in its rate-hike cycle.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are down and trading around $84.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.953%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, durable goods orders, the advance economic indicators report, pending home sales and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower and hit a nearly six-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,204.50 and then at 4,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,171.00 and then at 4,150.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower and hit a five-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 14,500.00 and then at 14,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,257.00 and then at 14,100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 110 16/32 and then at 111 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 107 28/32 and then at 107 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 106.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 106.22.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 105.10.5 and then at 105.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and have regained power. A fledgling price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0600 and then at 1.0668. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0523 and then at the October low of 1.0482. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $85.59 and then at $87.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $82.08 and then at $81.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Technicals are overall bearish for corn and wheat and the bears have gained fresh downside momentum this week. Technicals are neutral for soybeans. The red-hot bullish meal market suggests soybeans will also see some upside price action in the near term.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff