Thursday, March 2–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. A feature in the marketplace recently has been rising U.S. Treasury yields. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 4.020%. The yield is the highest since last November. Traders and investors worried about a still-hawkish Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher for longer in order to successfully tamp down problematic price inflation. However, that means the Fed clamping down on U.S. economic growth to squelch consumer and commercial demand.
In overnight news, the Euro zone February consumer price index came in at up 8.5%, year-on-year, compared to up 8.6% in January and a forecast for up 8.2% in the February report. It’s apparent the European Central Bank still has more work to do to defeat high inflation in the Euro zone.
The key outside markets this morning see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer and trading around $78.25 a barrel. Oil prices have rallied recently on hopes for better energy demand from China, the world’s second-largest economy, as that nation has abandoned its Covid restrictions.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, revised productivity and costs, and the monthly chain store sales index.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker and hit a six-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,060.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,950.00 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,322.00 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,900.00 and then at 11,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a three-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 124 6/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 123 11/32 and then at 123 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a three-month low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.02.0 and then at 111.12.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 110.20.0 and then at 110.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0758 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 1.0634 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy and sideways trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $79.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of $76.12 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were higher overnight on corrective rebounds from this week’s selling pressure. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Soybean market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage have faded a bit. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall chart advantage.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff