Monday, November 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite has been slowly creeping back into the general marketplace recently, as there has been no major military escalation in the Israel-Hamas war, at least from the markets’ point of view.
On tap this week, U.S. President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will meet Wednesday during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco. The White House cited a resumption of U.S./China military communications as a priority. Iran is also on the agenda, including the question of Iran’s nuclear program.
U.S. lawmakers are once again scrambling to pass a measure to fund the federal government. This time the deadline is midnight Friday.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading around $77.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.634%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the monthly Treasury budget statement.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,435.50 and then at the 4,475.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at 4,375.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 15,612.75 and then at 15,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,400.00 and then at 15,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 114 1/32 and then at last week’s high of 115 12/32. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 112 12/32 and then at 12 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 107.29.5 and then at 108.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 107.00.0 and then at 106.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been grinding sideways for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0774 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0633 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $76.21 and then at the November low of $74.91. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly firmer in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections and weekly USDA crop progress reports. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff