Thursday, March 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward near steady openings when the New York day session begins.
Reports overnight said the Trump administration is set to soon unveil more trade restrictions on China, after the U.S. has concluded China has been unfairly coercing U.S. firms to transfer their technology to China for years. This could become a major element in the world marketplace if the two largest world economies engage in a tit-for-tat trade war.
The key “outside markets” on Thursday morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly firmer. Trading in the USDX has been choppy and sideways recently. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are also slightly higher. The International Energy Agency said Wednesday that increasing world oil demand will offset the rise in U.S. shale-oil production, to keep the world supply and demand situation in balance.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, import and export prices, the Empire State manufacturing survey, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, NAHB housing index, and Treasury international capital data.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 2,779.50 and then at this week’s high of 2,802.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,741.00 and then at 2,725.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 7,098.00 and then at Tuesday’s record high of 7,188.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 7,000.00 and then at 6,950.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher and hit a five-week high in early U.S. trading. While bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, the bulls have momentum amid a fledgling price uptrend. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 145 16/32 and then at 146 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 144 25/32 and then at 144 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the bulls are having a good week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.23.0 and then at 120.28.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 120.15.0 and then at 120.07.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is slightly firmer in early U.S. trading today. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 89.720 and then at last week’s high of 89.930. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 89.095 and then at last week’s low of 88.915. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Trading has been choppy recently. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $62.33 and then at $63.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the March low of $59.95 and then at $59.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were firmer overnight. Traders are awaiting this morning’s USDA weekly export sales report. Grain market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid near-term price uptrends.