Monday, June 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly down overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. An escalating trade dispute between the U.S. and China—the world’s two largest economies—continues to rattle world markets. President Trump said during the weekend the U.S. may bar Chinese companies from investing in U.S. technology firms.
In overnight news, China’s central bank lowered its reserve requirement ratio for its banks by 0.5%, which is ostensibly a mild move to ease monetary policy.
The key “outside markets” today find the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading above $68.50 a barrel. The just-completed OPEC meeting that began Friday in Vienna, Austria saw cartel members raise their collective oil production by 1 million barrels a day, which the marketplace deemed bullish for crude oil.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index, new residential sales and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are now fading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is just above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 2,758.00 and then at 2,775.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at last week’s low of 2,735.75 and then at 2,725.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are lower and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 7,200.00 and then at the overnight high of 7,222.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 7,125.00 and then at 7,100.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the June high of 144 25/32 and then at 145 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 144 even and then at 143 13/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 120.06.0 and then at 120.12.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.27.5 and then at 119.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 94.550 and then at 95.000. Shorter-term support is seen at 94.000 and then at 93.750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
August Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of $69.38 and then at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $68.16 and then at $67.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were lower overnight. World ag trade worries and very good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt remain bearish. However, hot weather is coming for the region late this week. It’s going to take a weather market scare to jump-start rallies in the stumbling grain markets.