Monday, September 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are in a risk-off mode to start the trading week, as reports say the Trump administration is set to slap more tariffs on China in the ongoing trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Reports also said China is considering declining the U.S. offer for new trade talks later this month.
In overnight news, the Euro zone August consumer price index came in at up 0.2% from July and up 2.0%, year-on-year. Those numbers were right in line with market expectations.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index weaker. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $69.50 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Empire State manufacturing survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid an uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 2,921.75 and then at 2,935.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,900.00 and then at 2,885.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
December Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 7,600.00 and then at last week’s high of 7,627.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 7,525.00 and then at 7,500.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker and hit a six-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as a downtrend is in place on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 141 29/32 and then at Friday’s high of 142 9/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 141 16/32 and then at 141 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker and near last week’s a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.07.5 and then at Friday’s high of 119.13.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.03.5 and then at 119.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are baerish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 94.565 and then at 94.870. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 93.920 and then at 93.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, very stiff technical resistance still lies just above the market. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $70.00 and then at $70.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $68.74 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Grain market bears remain in command. U.S. corn and soybean harvest pressure is also starting full speed this week, so look for sideways-at-best trading in the grains in the coming weeks, but more likely sideways-to-lower.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff