Tuesday, March 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly slightly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.
The key economic data point of the day Tuesday will be the U.S. consumer price index report for February. The CPI is expected to come in at up 0.2% from January and up 2.3%, year-on-year. Inflation readings from the world’s major economies have been creeping up recently, which has caused a bit of concern among traders and investors. However, with most of the world inflation data being reported near or just above a 2.0% rise recently, most agree there is no cause for alarm. Most major central banks of the world actually want to see an annual inflation rate of right around 2.0%.
The key “outside markets” on Tuesday morning see the U.S. dollar index higher and Nymex crude oil prices slightly up. Rising U.S. shale oil production and some reported discord among OPEC leaders Saudi Arabia and Iran have put the crude oil market on the defensive recently.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the NFIB small business index and real earnings.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 2,800.50 and then at 2,820.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Monday’s low of 2,779.00 and then at 2,755.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s record high of 7,158.75 and then at 7,175.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 7,125.50 and then at Monday’s low of 7,090.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 143 26/32 and then at 144 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 142 21/32 and then at 142 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 120.08.0 and then at 120.14.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 119.26.5 and then at 119.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading today. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral to bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 89.930 and then at the March high of 90.490. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 89.365 and then at last week’s low of 88.915. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Trading has been choppy recently. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $62.33 and then at $63.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $61.00 and then at Monday’s low of $60.67. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were firmer overnight. Grain market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but they have faded a bit recently and needed to show some fresh strength.