Monday, September 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly firmer in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins. The stock markets are seeing bounces early this week after last week’s poor performances.
In overnight news, North Korea said it fired a tactical test missile that traveled nearly 1,000 miles. That’s a reminder to the world that the rogue nation is still on the geopolitical radar screen.
Trader attention early this week is on the U.S. consumer price index report for August, set for release Tuesday morning. The CPI is forecast up 0.4% after a rise of 0.5% in July. Year-on-year the CPI is seen up 5.4% in August—the same as July. Said Bloomberg news in a morning email dispatch: “On the raw-materials side, the price pressures are becoming increasingly hard to ignore with aluminum hitting the highest level in 13 years. Oil is back above $70 a barrel this morning. Producers are pushing the higher prices through to consumers as they battle with the increased costs of raw materials, shipping bottlenecks and rising labor expenses.”
Meantime, President Biden continues to try to push his major spending plan through the Congress but is hitting road-blocks.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $70.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.334%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the monthly Treasury budget statement.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a longer-term uptrend on the charts. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,519.75 and then at the contract high of 4,539.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,446.50 and then at 4,425.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 15,702.25 and then at 15,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 15,405.75 and then at 15,300.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 163 19/32 and then at last week’s high of 163 27/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 162 13/32 and then at 162 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 133.16.0 and then at last week’s high of 133.19.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.02.5 and then at 133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are down in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading and bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1837 and then at 1.1872. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the September low of 1.1775 and then at 1.1750. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a five-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $70.78 and then at $71.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at the overnight low of $69.51. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were lower overnight. Last Friday morning’s USDA supply and demand report was mostly bearish but corn and soybeans showed good corrective bounces. Key will be if those markets can show follow-through buying interest early this week. So far, that does not look to be the case. The corn and soybean market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage and the wheat bulls are fading, too. Technical damage has been inflicted in corn, wheat and soybeans recently, to suggest the path of least resistance for those markets is still sideways to lower in the near term. Seasonal weakness is also a negative for the grains, amid the just-completed U.S. wheat harvest and the soon-to-begin soybean and corn harvests.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff