Tuesday, February 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
The U.S. economic data point of the day Tuesday is the consumer price index report for January, seen coming in at up 2.9%, year-on-year, compared to a rise of 3.4% in the December report. Other data out today includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the NFIB small business optimism index and real earnings.
Asian and European stock markets were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. China is celebrating its Lunar New Year holiday this week. Many China markets are closed much of this week for the annual holiday. U.S. stock index futures are set to open lower today on profit taking after hitting record highs Monday.
STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after hitting a record high Monday. Bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 5,066.50 and then at 5,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,000.00 and then at 4,970.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower on a corrective pullback after hitting a record high Monday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 17,963.00 and then at the contract high of 18,121.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,750.00 and then at 17,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last Friday’s high of 120 14/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 119 14/32 and then at the January low of 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last Friday’s high of 111.01.0 and then at 111.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 110.16.0 and then at 110.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0820 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0740 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
March Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $77.84 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $76.00 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker overnight. This week is the annual USDA Ag Outlook conference Thursday and Friday, which will have new supply and demand estimates for the grains. Charts are still fully bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. Seasonality factors are turning a bit more bullish for the grain markets as springtime approaches. But still, there are no solid, early technical clues to suggest the grain markets have put in price bottoms.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff