Wednesday, July 12–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $75.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.948%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, real earnings, the Federal Reserve’s beige book and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the June high of 4,498.00 and then at 4,525.00. Support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 4,439.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,411.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the June high of 15,475.50 and then at 15,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,063.25 and then at 14,853.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer on more short covering after hitting a contract low Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 125 even and then at 125 17/32. Shorter-term support lies at Tuesday’s low of 123 31/32 and then at 123 16/32 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on more short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 111.24.0 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 111.03.5 and then at 110.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a two-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1074 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at this week’s low of 1.0982. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
August Nymex crude oil prices are slightly firmer and hit a five-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the June high of $75.70 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $74.00 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mostly higher overnight. On tap today is the USDA monthly supply and demand report. The corn market is still bearish, soybeans bullish and wheat neutral to bearish. These divergences in technical postures for the grains are uncommon. Don’t look for them to last too long. Weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest have turned wetter but there are still some dry pockets in the Corn Belt. Still, the Midwest weather will have to turn hotter and drier than present forecasts, in order to reignite another weather scare. The window is starting to close on a serious weather scare in corn redeveloping this summer.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff