Monday, May 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.
Focus this week is on the U.S. debt-limit extension talks between the White House and Congress. Reports said congressional leaders and President Biden will likely meet Tuesday. The U.S. government could run out of money as soon as June 1. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said over the weekend that progress is being made between Democrats and Republicans, in order to avoid a financially catastrophic U.S. government default on its debt obligations.
In overnight news, China’s central bank Monday said China’s economic growth in the second quarter will rebound sharply and that inflation levels will stay low due to less demand. In other news, Euro zone March industrial production fell 1.4%, year-on-year, which was more than forecast. The European Union sees Euro zone annual inflation at up 5.8% in 2023, up from a 5.6% rise in its previous forecast.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $70.25 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.485%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Empire State manufacturing survey and Treasury international capital data.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,173.25 and then at the May high of 4,206.25. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,111.75 and then at the May low of 4,062.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,494.25 and then at 13,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 13,202.75 and then at 13,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130 24/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at last week’s low of 129 18/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 115.20.0 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 115.01.5 and then at 114.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are firmer after hitting a seven-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.0958 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0850 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of $71.78 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $69.41 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were higher to solidly higher overnight, on short covering and perceived bargain hunting. A very shaky Russia-Ukraine grain-shipping deal that could collapse at any time is apparently turning more bullish for the grains. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections and crop progress reports. The technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, SRW wheat and corn futures are all bearish. HRW wheat is solidly bullish.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff