Monday, November 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly weaker and Asian shares mostly firmer. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.
China’s stock market did post a modest rebound Monday as Alibaba’s “singles day” sale saw Chinese consumers buy $30.8 billion in goods on-line Sunday. That beat last year’s 24-hour total of $25.3 billion.
The U.S. government is closed today for the Veterans Day holiday.
The key “outside markets” today find the U.S. dollar index solidly higher and hitting a 16-month high overnight. The Euro currency hit a 16-month low against the greenback. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer and trading around $60.50 a barrel after hitting a seven-month low on Friday. Reports today say Saudi Arabia will cut its oil exports and prod the OPEC oil cartel to lower its collective crude oil production, in the wake of the recent steep downdraft in oil prices.
There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday, due in part to the federal holiday.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady. Prices are in a fledgling uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 2,795.25 and then at last week’s high of 2,818.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Friday’s low of 2,764.50 and then at 2,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
December Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and are in a fledgling uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 7,103.75 and then at Friday’s high of 7,166.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 6,989.00 and then at 6,950.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading today, on short covering. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 138 16/32 and then at 138 24/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 137 26/32 and then at 137 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 118.11.5 and then at 118.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 118.03.5 and then at 118.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is sharply higher and hit a 16-month high in early U.S. trading today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 97.410 and then at 97.750. Shorter-term support is seen at 97.000 and then at the overnight low of 96.800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up after hitting a seven-month low on Friday. Bears are in solid near-term technical control. There are no early clues that a market bottom is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $61.28 and then at $62.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $60.00 and then at Friday’s low of $59.26. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. The big gains in the U.S. dollar index today will limit buying interest in the grains. The grain market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff