Tuesday, April 24–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.
There was no major, fresh fundamental news overnight. U.S. President Trump and French President Macron meet today to discuss whether to continue the Iran nuclear deal reached in 2015, or to pull out of it and reinstate sanctions on Iran. The deal is up for renewal in early May.
The key “outside markets” on Tuesday morning see the U.S. dollar index trading near steady after hitting a more-than-three-month high Monday. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading near $69.00 a barrel. Oil prices are not far below last week’s a 3.5-year high.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, the U.S. monthly house price index, new residential sales, the consumer confidence index and the Richmond Fed business survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,700.00 and then at the April high of 2,718.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,671.25 and then at last week’s low of 2,659.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 6,750.00 and then at 6,790.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,654.00 and then at Monday’s low of 6,616.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading, on tepid short covering after hitting a nearly two-month low on Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 143 9/32 and then at 143 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 142 28/32 and then at Monday’s low of 142 9/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher on tepid short covering after hitting a contract and multi-year low on Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 119.16.0 and then at 119.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 119.06.5 and then at 119.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is slightly lower after hitting a nearly two-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 90.850 and then at 91.000. Shorter-term support is seen at 90.295 and then at 90.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls are in solid near-term technical control. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $69.33 and then at last week’s high of $69.55. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $68.00 and then at $67.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were weaker overnight. The recent rally in the U.S. dollar index has been bearish for the grains. Farmers will be in their fields, full force later this week, planting corn and preparing for soybean planting. That’s also a negative for corn and beans. Wheat has seen some decent rainfall in dry areas of the Plains states.