Thursday, April 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock index bulls are working to shore up their markets after getting shellacked on Tuesday. The major indexes remain in near-term downtrends on the daily charts, suggesting the path of least resistance for prices remains sideways to lower.
This week is the busiest U.S. corporate earnings week of the quarter. So far most of the earnings reports have been upbeat.
In overnight news, the Japanese yen hit a 20-year low against the U.S. dollar as the Bank of Japan has reinforced its commitment to low interest rates despite rising inflation. Japan is bucking the trend of other major countries who have or are considering tightening their monetary policies. Meantime, the Euro currency fell to a five-year low against the dollar as soaring energy prices crimp the Euro zone economy. The U.S. dollar index is solidly up again today and hit another two-year high.
The other key outside markets today sees Nymex crude oil futures prices slightly up and trading around $102.50 a barrel. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 2.804%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the advance first-quarter GDP estimate and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,258.75 and then at this week’s high of 4,303.50. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,200.50 and then at this week’s low of 4,136.75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,347.25 and then at this week’s high of 13,583.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,801.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 143 9/32 and then at 144 even. Shorter-term support lies at 141 even and then at this week’s low of 139 28/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in solid near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 120.18.5 and then at 120.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119.07.5 and then at 119.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are lower and hit another contract and five-year low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0600 and then at 1.0676. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight contract low of 1.0500 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $103.05 and then at $104.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $100.00 and then at $98.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures prices were mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls have the slight near-term chart advantage. Planting delays in the U.S. Corn Belt are in focus as much of that region remains cool and wet. Rising raw commodity price inflation continues to be a major underlying bullish element for the grains. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff