World stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.
The U.S. government remains shut down for the third day, as U.S. lawmakers cannot agree on a budget and President Trump seems content to let the government stay closed. The situation has not had a major impact on the world marketplace, but has somewhat limited buying interest in U.S. equities and have pressured the U.S. dollar in the foreign exchange market.
Focus of the marketplace this week is on Davos, Switzerland and its World Economic Forum. World government officials, corporate heads and other celebrities will be at the yearly event to discuss economics and ways to make the world better. The highlight of the event will be a speech by U.S. President Trump.
The key outside markets on Monday morning see the U.S. dollar index lower. Prices are hovering near last week’s 3.5-year low. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady after hitting a four-year high last week.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Chicago Fed national activity index.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and near last week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, the market is still short-term overbought and due for a decent downside correction. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 2,815.00 and then at 2,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at last Friday’s low of 2,791.75 and then at last week’s low of 2,769.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on mild profit taking after hitting a contract and record high last Friday. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, the market is still short-term overbought and due for a decent downside correction soon. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 6,857.00 and then at 6,875.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,824.25 and then at 6,800.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer on short covering after hitting a contract low overnight. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last Friday’s high of 149 12/32 and then at 150 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 148 12/32 and then at 148 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer on short covering after hitting another contract low overnight. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last Friday’s high of 122.16.0 and then at 122.19.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 122.01.5 and then at 122.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 90.500 and then at last week’s high of 90.765. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 89.960 and then at 89.750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
March Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a four-year high last week. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $64.00 and then at last week’s high of $64.89. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $63.00 and then at $62.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were firmer overnight, on more short covering. Recent gains in soybeans and corn hint that market bottoms are in place. Wheat futures continue to languish not far above their recent lows.