Wednesday, March 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
The marketplace has mostly digested Tuesday’s U.S. consumer price index for February that came in a bit warmer than expected, at up 3.2%, year-on-year, versus market expectations for a rise of 3.1%, and compares to a rise of 3.1% seen in the January report. The core CPI number for February was up 3.8% compared to expectations of up 3.7% and up 3.9% seen in the January report. The slightly warmer CPI readings followed the slightly warmer-than-expected CPI report for January. Thursday’s February producer price index report is now in focus. PPI in February is seen coming in up 0.3%, month-on-month, following a 0.3% rise in the January report. More warm U.S. inflation readings in the coming weeks may prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates as soon as it had just recently anticipated.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and are not far below last Tuesday’s contract and record high close. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 4.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,257.25 and then at 5,275.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 5,157.00 and then at last week’s low of 5,124.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading but not far below last week’s contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,600.00 and then at the contract high of 18,691.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,300.00 and then at 18,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 121 27/32 and then at last week’s high of 122 13/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 120 16/32 and then at 120 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 111.24.0 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 111.00.0 and then at 110.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1026 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0946 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at the March high of $80.85. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $76.79 and then at $75.84. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, corn, soybeans and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts, to suggest market bottoms are in place. “Corn is king” in the grains, and if corn has bottomed out, so likely have the other grains.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff