Tuesday, November 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were steady to mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. data point of the day is the producer price index report for October, which is seen coming in at up 0.4% from September and compares to the rise of 0.4% in the September PPI report.
Trader and investor risk attitudes are more upbeat Tuesday, on notions the Federal Reserve will at its December meeting start to back off on its aggressive tightening of U.S. monetary policy. Monday’s face-to-face meeting between U.S. President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping also has boosted hopes the world’s two largest economies can become less adversarial. Also positive for the marketplace are recent moves by China to ease up on its Covid restrictions.
In overnight news, the Euro zone third-quarter GDP came in at up 2.1%, year on year, which was slightly above market expectations.
The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $85.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower and hovering near last week’s nearly three-month low. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 3.799%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail sales indexes and the Empire State manufacturing survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and not far from the two-month high recorded on Monday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 4,017.50 and then at 4,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at last Friday’s low of 3,951.00 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and close to Monday’s six-week high. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field but the bulls have momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,000.00 and then at 12,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 11,702.00 and then at 11,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 125 even and then at 126 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 123 16/32 and then at this week’s low of 122 28/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a five-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.21.5 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 112.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 111.27.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are higher and hit a three-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0463 and then at 1.0500. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0337 and then at this week’s low of 1.0297. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $88.00 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $84.06 and then at $82.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were weaker in overnight trading. Not much new so far today. Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field but the bears have momentum. Soybeans bulls have the slight chart edge but have faded. Wheat bears have the firm near-term technical advantage.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff