Monday, April 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.
There is a bit of risk aversion in the marketplace to start the trading week, as the U.S. is ratcheting up its economic sanctions on Iran. The U.S. now intends to eliminate waivers it had given to countries that imported Iranian crude oil.
Some world stock and financial markets are closed Monday due to the Easter holiday.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index weaker on a corrective pullback after hitting a new high for the year on Friday. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher, hit a nearly six-month high and are trading around $65.50 a barrel. Oil surged on the weekend reports the U.S. is going to end sanction waivers for countries importing Iranian crude oil.
U.S. economic reports due for release Monday are light and include the Chicago Fed business survey and existing home sales.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading today. Bulls still have the firm near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s six-month high of 2,923.50 and then at 2,940.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at last week’s low of 2,889.50 and then at 2,877.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s six-month high of 7,733.50 and then at the October high of 7,767.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 7,650.00 and then at last week’s low of 7,598.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded recently and a downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 146 27/32 and then at last week’s high of 147 5/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 146 16/32 and then at last week’s low of 145 31/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded recently as a price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 123.07.5 and then at 123.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 123.00.0 and then at 122.27.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is lower early today, on a corrective pullback after hitting a new high for the year last Thursday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the March high of 97.160 and then at last week’s high of 97.290. Shorter-term support is seen at 96.800 and then at 96.620. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher and hit a nearly six-month high in early U.S. trading today. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage and are keeping a gentle uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $65.87 and then at $66.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $65.00 and then at $64.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were lower overnight and are at or near their lows for this year. Traders will examine this morning’s weekly USDA export inspections report. Grain market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Focus is on U.S. Corn Belt weather, which was dry and warm over the weekend, to allow for some field work. Most of this week looks better for field work, too, including some early planting of corn.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff