Friday, May 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins, on follow-through selling from Thursday’s shellacking. The U.S. stock index bears have quickly regained the solid near-term technical advantage as prices are in downtrends on the daily bar charts.
Traders and investors are awaiting Friday morning’s U.S. employment situation report for April. The key non-farm jobs number in the report is expected to come in at up 400,000, which compares to a rise of 431,000 in the March report.
The key outside markets today sees Nymex crude oil futures prices higher and trading around $110.50 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 3.074%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the consumer credit report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have regained the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,200.00 and then at 4,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 4,099.25 and then at this week’s low of 4,056.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart and bears have the solid technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,000.00 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,705.25 and then at 12,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 138 even and then at 139 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s contract low of 136 19/32 and then at 136 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 118.16.0 and then at 118.24.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s contract low of 117.26.0 and then at 117.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0658 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 1.0490 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $111.37 and then at $113.51. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $107.24 and then at $105.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures prices were lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Weather forecasts for the Corn Belt and wheat country have turned bearish. Drier and warmer weather is coming to the Corn Belt in the coming days, which will allow for rapid corn and soybean planting progress. Meantime, some beneficial precipitation in the U.S. hard red winter wheat country will provide some relief to suffering wheat crops. Grain market bulls still have the near-term chart advantage.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff