Friday, May 5–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins, following losses posted every day this week. Risk aversion remains elevated to end the trading week, mainly on concerns over the health of the U.S. banking sector—especially regional banks. Reports said the U.S. government is investigating potential trader manipulation of banking stocks.
The marketplace is awaiting Friday morning’s April U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast to come in at up 180,000 versus a rise of 236,000 in the March report. The U.S. ADP national employment report on Wednesday came in strong, showing 296,000 jobs were created in April, almost double the forecast.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $70.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching around 3.5%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the global services PMI and consumer credit.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 4,167.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,206.25. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,062.25 and then at 4,025.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,370.25 and then at 13,500.00 On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at the April low of 12,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 132 even and then at this week’s high of 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 116.12.0 and then at 116.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 116.00.0 and then at Wednesday’s low of 115.17.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the April high of 1.1129 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at this week’s low of 1.0972. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. It appears the bears are exhausted after the recent downdraft. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of $71.79 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $70.37 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were higher overnight, on short covering. Keener risk aversion in the general marketplace this week has kept the grain market bulls timid. The technical postures for all the grain markets remain bearish. Generally good corn and soybean planting weather so far is bearish for the grains.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff