Friday, October 6–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European stocks were mixed but mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to firmer openings when the New York day session begins.
Traders are looking ahead to Friday morning’s important September employment situation report from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 170,000 compared to a rise of 187,000 in the September report. Wednesday’s big downside miss in the ADP jobs report has many thinking the more important jobs report Friday morning will also be a miss to the downside. A weakening U.S. economy would actually be a good thing of sorts for the marketplace, in that it would likely cool the ascent in bond yields.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $82.50 a barrel. Just last week Nymex crude prices poked just above $95.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.738%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the consumer credit report.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of 4,335.75 and then at this week’s high of 4,355.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,235.50 and then at 4,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. Both are below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 15,060.75 and then at 15,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 14,716.25 and then at the September low of 14,586.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and not far above this week’s contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 112 24/32 and then at this week’s high of 113 24/32. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 109 20/32 and then at 109 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 107.14.0 and then at this week’s high of 107.29.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 106.18.00 and then at the contract low of 106.03.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
The December Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0652 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0482 and then at 1.0450. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
November Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $85.00 and then at $86.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $81.00 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Not much new today. Risk aversion in the general marketplace recently is keeping the grain market bulls timid. Harvesting of soybeans and corn is in full swing and that is also a bearish seasonal factor amid commercial hedge selling. Technicals are fully bearish for corn, wheat and meal, and moderately bearish for soybeans.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.