Friday, July 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are awaiting the U.S. data point of the week, Friday morning’s employment situation report for June. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in up 250,000 compared to the 390,000 rise in the May report. A significant miss on the actual number from the consensus forecast would likely move markets.
In overnight news, former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated during a speech.
The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly up and trading around $103.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly up early today. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.978%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes monthly wholesale trade and consumer credit.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, a bullish weekly high close Friday would be one technical clue that a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,914.25 and then at 3,950.00. Support for active traders is seen at Thursday’s low of 3,832.50 and then at 3,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,168.50 and then at 12,262.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 11,836.50 and then at 11,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control, but bulls are working on a price uptrend on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 140 even and then at 141 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 138 6/32 and then at 137 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control but bulls are working on a price uptrend on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 119.05.0 and then at 119.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 118.06.0 and then at 118.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are slightly down and hit another a 20-year low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 1.0273 and then at 1.0331. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0121 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s high of $104.48 and then at $106.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $100.00 and then at $98.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were higher overnight as the markets late this week have stabilized, to begin to suggest near-term market bottoms may be in place and that the bears overdid it on the downside recently. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Weather forecasts for the Corn Belt remain front and center for grain traders.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff