Thursday, August 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.
The Russian ruble hit a two-year low against the U.S. dollar overnight as the U.S. hit Russia with new economic sanctions. The Turkish lira fell to another record low against the greenback. The British pound is under pressure on Brexit uncertainties.
The most significant U.S. economic report so far this week is out this morning—the producer price index for July, which is expected to show a 0.2% rise from June. The consumer price index is due out Friday morning.
The key “outside markets” today find the U.S. dollar index slightly up and crude oil prices near steady and trading around $67.00 a barrel.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, monthly chain store sales and monthly wholesale trade.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher and near the six-month high hit earlier this week, in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 2,863.75 and then at 2,875.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 2,835.00 and then at 2,820.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly up in early trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 7,500.00 and then at the July high of 7,530.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 7,440.25 and then at this week’s low of 7,387.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 143 even and then at this week’s high of 143 18/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 142 11/32 and then at 142 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.20.0 and then at this week’s high of 119.27.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 119.12.5 and then at 119.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 95.350 and then at the July high of 95.440. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 94.810 and then at 94.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading, after solid losses on Wednesday. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $67.50 and then at $68.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of $66.32 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Traders will closely examine this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report. However, the big report for the grains is Friday’s monthly supply-and-demand report. Weather in the Corn Belt is still mostly benign.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff