Thursday, February 16–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mostly higher. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.
The U.S. data point of the day Thursday is the U.S. producer price index report for January. PPI is seen up 0.4% from December, following a decline of 0.5% in December from November.
In overnight news, China-U.S. relations continued to deteriorate as China black-listed U.S. companies Lockheed and Raytheon, both major U.S. defense contractors. This comes after the U.S. black-listed six Chinese companies linked to the Chinese spy balloons.
The key outside markets see the U.S. dollar index weaker on a corrective pullback from recent good gains that saw the index hit a five-week high Wednesday. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly up and trading around $78.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.788%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the producer price index, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, and new residential construction. Several Federal Reserve officials are slated to give speeches today.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,186.50 and then at the February high of 4,208.50. Support for active traders is seen at Wednesday’s low of 4,113.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,060.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the near-term chart advantage as prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,818.50 and then at the February high of 12,949.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 12,524.25 and then at Tuesday’s low of 12,390.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit a five-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 127 19/32 and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 125 30/32 and then at 125 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a six-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 112.18.0 and then at 112.28.0. Shorter-term technical support the overnight low of 111.29.5 and then at the December low of 111.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.0762 and then at this week’s high of 1.0824. Shorter-term support is seen at the February low of 1.0674 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at this week’s high of $80.62. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $77.25 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mostly weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the slight overall chart advantage but there are technical clues the wheat markets have bottomed out.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff