Friday, September 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. stock indexes are not far below their recent record highs. The marketplace continues to see trader and investor attitudes generally upbeat.
Reports Thursday said the U.S. has made an overture to China to restart trade talks later this month. However, a tweet from President Trump on Thursday was not deemed upbeat on an imminent U.S.-China trade agreement.
The major U.S. economic report of the day Friday is retail sales for August, which are seen up 0.4% from July.
In overnight news, the Turkish lira has rallied against the U.S. dollar Friday after Turkey’s central bank raised interest rates by 6.25% on Thursday.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading just below $69.00 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export prices, retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilization, manufacturing and trade inventories and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid an uptrend still in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 2,921.75 and then at 2,935.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,900.00 and then at 2,885.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 7,650.00 and then at 7,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 7,588.50 and then at 7,550.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as a downtrend is in place on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 142 9/32 and then at this week’s high of 142 27/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 141 28/32 and then at 141 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower for three weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.13.5 and then at 119.19.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.07.0 and then at 119.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly lower and poked to a six-week low in early U.S. trading. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded this week. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are baerish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 94.545 and then at 94.870. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 93.920 and then at 93.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, very stiff technical resistance still lies just above the market. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $69.50 and then at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Thursday’s low of $68.35 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were firmer overnight on short covering from this week’s solid losses. Grain market bears remain in command. U.S. corn and soybean harvest pressure is also starting, so look for sideways-at-best trading in the grains in the coming weeks, but more likely sideways-to-lower.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff