Friday, April 14–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are still in price uptrends on the daily bar charts.
The U.S. data point of the day will be the March retail sales report, seen coming in at down 0.5%, versus a decline of 0.4% in the February report.
In overnight news, the International Energy Agency said global crude oil demand will outstrip supply this quarter, following OPEC’s recent surprise move to cut its collective oil production.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower and hitting a 2.5-month low. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer and trading around $82.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.435%.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes retail sales, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, manufacturing and trade inventories, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,177.75 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at the April low of 4,096.50 and then at 4,078.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,241.75 and then at the April high of 13,348.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,925.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 133 1/32 and then at this week’s high of 133 19/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 131 15/32 and then at 131 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 116.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 116.08.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 115.06.5 and then at 115.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a 12-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1150 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 1.1016 and then at 1.0954. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $83.53 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $81.00 and then at $80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed to weaker overnight. Soybean and corn market bulls have the chart advantage. SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have lost their slight chart edge as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Focus of grain traders is on weather in the U.S. Midwest and mid-South as corn and soybean planting gets under way.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff