Tuesday, April 4–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. stock index bulls are enjoying near-term price uptrends on the daily bar charts.
In overnight news, Australia’s central bank kept its monetary policy steady after its regular meeting. The bank said the pause from tightening gives it time to assess the outlook amid uncertainty, but added further tightening of monetary policy may be needed.
Meantime, the Eurozone February producer price index was reported up 13.6%, year-on-year, which was slightly below market expectations.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $81.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.449%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,200.00 and then at the February high of 4,244.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,122.75 and then at last Friday’s low of 4,078.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer and hit an eight-month high in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,500.00 and then at 13,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 13,154.00 and then at last Friday’s low of 13,057.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 132 14/32 and then at 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 130 12/32 and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 115.21.5 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 114.18.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are up and hit a two-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at 1.1050. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0929 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting hit a two-month high Monday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $81.69 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at this week’s low of $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. This week’s jump in crude oil prices is bullish for grains. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace recently is also bullish. Soybean and corn market bulls have the chart advantage. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the chart edge amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff