Monday, November 6–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings after posting solid gains last week. There were no major, unexpected developments, markets-wise, on the Israel-Hamas war front over the weekend. That’s allowing traders and investors to focus on an react to more normal market fundamentals.
In overnight news, Bank of Japan governor Ueda said the BOJ will continue its monetary policy easing and yield-curve control policy. He also said he did not think the Japanese government 10-year note yield would stay significantly above 1.0%. That compares to the U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield of around 4.5%. Ueda’s comments were music to the ears of the foreign exchange and financial markets traders who are and have been executing the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential or “carry” trades.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $82.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.593%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index and the global services purchasing managers index (PMI).
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading, following solid gains posted last week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,400.00 and then at the October high of 4,430.50. Support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 4,325.50 and then at 4,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, following good gains seen last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,350.00 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,000.00 and then at 14,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 114 even and then at last week’s high of 114 27/32. Shorter-term support lies at 113 even and then at Friday’s low of 112 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.16.0 and then at last week’s high of 108.25.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 108.00.0 and then at 107.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
The December Euro currency futures are slightly up and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been grinding sideways to higher for the past month. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0800 and then at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at last Friday’s low of 1.0633. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $83.60 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections and weekly crop progress reports. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are neutral for soybeans. The bullish meal market suggests soybeans will also see some upside price action in the near term.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.