Monday, September 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed higher openings when the New York day session begins. Stock and financial markets are almost half-way through the month of September with no major marketplace anxiety. The major U.S. stock indexes have seen short-term price downtrends stall out. History shows September and October can be rocky months for the stock and financial markets.
Traders and investors are awaiting the latest U.S. inflation report on Tuesday. The August consumer price index is seen coming in up 8.0%, year-on-year, compared to the July report showing an 8.5% rise. There are some signs in the economy that inflation in the U.S. is cooling off a bit.
The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $87.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly lower and hit a two-week low overnight. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.298%.
There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday but the pace picks up Tuesday.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. A downtrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in 4,150.00 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,050.00 and then at Friday’s low of 4,022.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. A downtrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,850.00 and then at 13,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,600.00 and then at Friday’s low of 12,405.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the firm advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 134 even and then at the September high of 135 4/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 132 18/32 and the at the September low of 132 2/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the firm technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 116.11.0 and then at 116.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115.18.0 and then at the September low of 115.13.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are solidly higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but a price downtrend has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0265 and then at 1.0300. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0126 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading on short more covering after hitting an eight-month low last week. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $88.00 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $85.16 and then at $84.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were firmer overnight. The corn market is trending up and the bulls have the chart advantage. Soybean prices are chopping sideways and bulls and bears are on a level technical playing field. Soybeans are being supported by a bullish soybean meal market. Wheat markets have seen bullish upside breakouts from the recent sideways trading ranges at lower levels and the bulls have gained upside recently. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff