Tuesday, June 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are at 2.5-month highs as traders and investors are in upbeat, risk-taking moods at present.
So far early this week, the marketplace is mostly looking past U.S. tensions with its major trading partners that threaten to boil over into a worldwide trade war.
In overnight news, Australia’s central bank left its monetary policy unchanged at its regular meeting Tuesday.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices slightly weaker and trading around $64.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker today on a corrective pullback from recent gains that last week pushed prices to a 10.5-month high.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the U.S. services purchasing managers index (PMI), the ISM non-manufacturing report on business, the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index, and the global services PMI.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer and hit a 2.5-month high in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 2,755.75 and then at 2,775.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Monday’s low of 2,733.25 and then at 2,711.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher and hit another 11-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the March contract high of 7,199.00 and then at 7,225.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 7,161.75 and then at 7,125.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 143 31/32 and then at 144 19/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 143 1/32 and then at 142 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 119.27.0 and then at 120.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 119.13.5 and then at 119.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 93.660 and then at 94.000. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 93.190 and then at 93.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
July Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and hit another seven-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $65.29 and then at this week’s high of $66.04. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $64.00 and then at $63.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were higher overnight on corrective bounces from Monday’s selling pressure. U.S. trade disputes and generally good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt at present are still bearish for the grains.