Tuesday, January 3–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The stock indexes begin the new year with some optimism after the S&P 500 stock index in 2022 suffered its worst year since 2008.
Inflation worries, central bank monetary policies and the Russia-Ukraine war are likely to remain near the front burner of the marketplace in 2023.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index sharply higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $79.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.761%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and includes construction spending.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,906.75 and then at 3,919.75. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,842.75 and then at 3,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,171.00 and then at 11,411.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 10,952.00 and then at last week’s low of 10,758.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 127 even and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at 126 even and then at the overnight low of 125 3/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 113.02.0 and then at 113.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 112.12.5 and then at 112.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are sharply and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a three-month-old uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0650 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0570 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
February Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. A fledgling price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at the overnight high of $81.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $76.79 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Corn bulls start 2023 with the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending higher. Wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, but bulls are working on fledgling price uptrends that suggest near-term market bottoms are in place. Soybeans bulls still have the chart edge as prices are in an uptrend. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff