Thursday, November 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed overnight, but European stock indexes were mostly up. U.S. stock indexes are set to open higher and at fresh record highs when the New York day session begins.
In overnight news, the Eurozone reported its consumer price index up 1.5% in November from up 1.4% in October. The October jobless rate came in at 8.8% from 8.9% in September. The November jobless rate was the lowest since January of 2009. Today’s Euro zone data falls into the camp of the monetary policy hawks, who want the European Central Bank to raise interest rate soon.
Investors and traders are awaiting the end result of a U.S. tax-cut plan being pushed through Congress. The Senate is likely to vote on the tax legislation soon. It is not a clear-cut consensus that this bill will pass the Senate.
The OPEC oil cartel meeting in Vienna, Austria began Thursday to discuss extending its oil-production quotas. It’s expected the cartel will continue with its current collective production quota.
The U.S. dollar index is higher today. The greenback bulls are having a decent week. However, the dollar index bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer today. Prices this week have seen a corrective pullback after hitting a two-year high last week. Oil bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, stiff chart resistance layers lie just above the market.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, personal income and outlays, the ISM Chicago business survey, and monthly chain store sales data.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and poked to another contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are no early chart clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,650.00 and then at 2,665.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,623.75 and then at 2,610.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5
March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce from the solid losses seen Wednesday. Prices Tuesday hit a contract and record high. The bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. More selling pressure this week would be a chart clue that a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 6,375.00 and then at 6,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 6,301.00 and then at 6,275.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on follow-through pressure from solid losses seen Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 152 16/32 and then at 153 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 151 21/32 and then at 151 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 124.16.0 and then at 124.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 124.08.0 and then at 124.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 93.130 and then at 93.500. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 92.755 and then at of 92.470. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
January Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $58.30 and then at the November high of 59.05. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $57.26 and then at this week’s low of $56.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures markets were weaker overnight. Traders will examine this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report. Corn and wheat markets are still bearish. Soybean bulls still have some momentum. Still, I do not see strong downside price potential in corn and wheat, given their already low price levels.