Global stock markets were mixed to firmer in overnight trading, following the big U.S. stock market gains Thursday. U.S. stock index futures are presently pointed toward lower openings when the New York electronic day session begins, on a corrective pullback following this week’s very strong gains. The S&P 500 stock index is up almost 20% from its low seen Monday. The global equity markets have been boosted in part as the U.S. Congress is on the verge of passing a $2.2 trillion financial aid package for U.S. businesses and citizens. However, any trader/investor watching the evening national news cannot come away with a good feeling, as the U.S. has passed all other countries in Covid-19 cases and New York’s health care system is in crisis and straining to keep up with coronavirus cases. Other states are also seeing an alarming rise in new Covid-19 cases.
Heading into another uncertain weekend, its likely traders and investors are not going to be in hearty buying moods. Still, if the U.S. stock indexes can avoid major losses Friday, then this week’s strong gains in the U.S. indexes do begin to suggest they have put in market bottoms.
The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices near steady and trading around $22.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is firmer on a mild corrective bounce after this week’s strong losses. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is trading around 0.075% Friday morning, down from Thursday’s level.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from this week’s strong gains. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 2,634.50 and then at 2,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at 2,500.00 and then at 2,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from this week’s good gains. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 7,750.00 and then at the overnight high of 7,893.25. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 7,600.00 and then at 7,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 179 21/32 and then at 180 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 177 9/32 and then at 177 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 137.26.0 and then at 138.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 137.07.0 and then at Tuesday’s low of 136.29.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce from this week’s strong losses. Bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral to bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 100.000 and then at 100.500. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 99.010 and then at 98.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $25.24 and then at $26.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $22.00 and then at $21.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
US grain futures are mixed in early US pre-market trading. While the grain futures markets appear to have stabilized at present, the dour global economic picture will keep rallies modest, including wheat, after its recent run higher. Wheat bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, with soybeans in a neutral posture and corn remains bearish.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff