Wednesday, September 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. European shares were mostly up and Asian shares mostly down. U.S. stocks are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins, following recent strong selling pressure that has rattled many traders and investors. The marketplace is presently shrugging off overnight news that AstraZeneca has halted its Covid-19 vaccine trials because one person in the trial contracted an unexplained illness. Temporarily halting such trials is not uncommon, experts said.
The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $37.50, on a corrective bounce following sharp losses recently. The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.67% today.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday is light and includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, as bulls try to recover from the recent sharp sell off. Prices overnight did hit a four-week low. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but a five-month-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart is in serious jeopardy. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,400.00 and then at 3,425.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at the overnight low of 3,295.50 and then at 3,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading on a corrective bounce after hitting a four-week low overnight. Bulls have the overall technical advantage but a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated to suggest a market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,400.00 and then at 11,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,000.00 and then at the overnight low of 10,935.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 178 16/32 and then at 179 even. Shorter-term support lies at 177 16/32 and then at Tuesday’s low of 176 28/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 139.23.0 and then at 139.27.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at Tuesday’s low of 139.06.0 and then at 139.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are lower and hit a four-week low on more profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading a bit. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1813 and then at Tuesday’s high of 1.1874. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1750 and then at 1.1700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are higher on a corrective bounce after hitting a six-week low Tuesday. A price uptrend on the daily chart has been soundly negated. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $38.00 and then at $39.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $37.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of $36.13. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
US grain futures are mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage in all three markets. Demand from China remains strong for soybeans and even some corn. Friday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report is coming into focus. Trading is likely to be quieter until that midday report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff