Friday, June 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins, on short covering after hitting contract lows on Thursday.
In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index for May was reported up 0.8% from April and up 8.1%, year-on-year.
The Bank of Japan reiterated its adherence to an easy monetary policy despite the other major central banks of the world being on a tightening path. That news put still more pressure on the Japanese yen against the dollar.
The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly up and trading around $118.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.22%.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes industrial production and capacity utilization and leading economic indicators.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a contract low on Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at of 3,800.00 and then at this week’s high of 3,878.50. Support for active traders is seen at the contract low of 3,642.00 and then at 3,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low on Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,500.00 and then at this week’s high of 11,811.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the contract low of 11,068.50 and then at 11,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher on short covering after hitting a contract low on Thursday. Bears are still in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 135 even and then at this week’s high of 135 27/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 133 24/32 and then at 133 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 116.25.0 and then at 117.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115.28.5 and then at 115.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0668 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0550 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $118.97 and then at $120.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $116.00 and then at $115.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures prices were mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Not much new. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace this week is still a bearish element for the grain markets. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage to suggest a sideways, trading-range grind for the month of June. Grain market bulls are hoping for a weather market in the coming weeks. The Corn Belt is expected to get hot next week.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff