Friday, August 18–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
In overnight news, the Euro zone July consumer price index came in at up 5.3%, year-on-year, which was right in line with market expectations.
There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading and hit a six-week low. Bulls are fading and prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 4,436.75 and then at Wednesday’s high of 4,467.25. Support for active traders is seen at 4,368.50 and then at 4,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading and hit a six-week low. Bulls are fading and prices are trending down on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 15,018.25 and then at Wednesday’s high of 15,166.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,600.00 and then at 14,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a contract low on Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 120 even and then at 120 19/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 118 31/32 and then at the contract low of 118 14/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher on short covering after hitting a contract low on Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 110.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 109.14.0 and then at the contract low of 109.03.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are a just bit higher in early U.S. trading after hitting a five-week low Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0900 and then at this week’s high of 1.0978. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0871 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $82.00 and then at this week’s high of $83.20. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $78.95 and then at $77.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were higher in overnight trading. Weather in the Midwest leans friendlier for corn and especially soybean prices. Hot temps and slack precip are in the forecast for the Midwest this week and into next week. Corn and soybean traders are looking ahead to the annual Pro Farmer crop tour of the Corn Belt that takes place next week.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff