Monday, April 24–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The stock indexes have wobbled recently amid concerns the Federal Reserve will keep its monetary policy tighter for longer in order to ensure inflation is successfully tamped down. Focus of stock traders this week will be on the release of a slew of corporate earnings reports.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $77.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.543%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,173.50 and then at the April high of 4,198.25. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,133.50 and then at the April low of 4,096.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,200.00 and then at the April high of 13,348.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the April low of 12,925.50 and then at 12,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 130 31/32 and then at 132 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 129 26/32 even and then at the April low of 129 4/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 115.01.0 and then at 115.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 114.07.0 and then at the April low of 113.30.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the April high of 1.1114 and then at 1.1150. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0947 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $79.07 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $76.72 and then at $75.83. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Soybean and corn market bulls have the chart advantage. SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have lost their slight chart edge. Focus of grain traders is on weather in the U.S. Midwest, Plains and mid-South as corn and soybean planting gets under way.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff