Friday, February 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes have now regained all or most of last week’s strong losses.
China and other Asian markets were closed Friday for the Lunar New Year holiday.
The key outside markets on Friday morning see the U.S. dollar index firmer on a tepid rebound from this week’s strong selling pressure. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $61.50 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export prices, new residential construction, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are firmer and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 2,746.75 and then at 2,763.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,725.00 and then at 2,700.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 6,859.75 and then at 6,900.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 6,800.00 and then at 6,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading, on tepid short covering in a bear market. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 145 even and then at this week’s high of 145 9/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 143 18/32 and then at the contract low of 143 4/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher on tepid short covering after hitting a contract low on Thursday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.17.0 and then at 120.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 120.09.5 and then at the contract low of 120.01.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S. trading, after hitting a contract and multi-year low overnight. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 89.000 and then at 89.250. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 88.150 and then at 88.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0