Tuesday, February 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. and China markets were closed Monday for holidays. Rising world government bond yields are prompting more selling pressure in equities early this week. Tuesday is setting up to be another volatile day in the U.S. stock market.
Gold prices are solidly lower early today. Bitcoin prices are sharply higher today and are continuing a solid rebound from the recent low.
The key outside markets on Tuesday morning see the U.S. dollar index higher on a corrective rebound from recent strong selling pressure. The dollar index did hit a three-year low last week, with the Euro currency pushing to a three-year high. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are firmer early today and trading just below $62.00 a barrel.
There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 2,754.75 and then at 2,763.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,700.00 and then at 2,688.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 6,750.00 and then at 6,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 6,700.00 and then at 6,669.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 144 15/32 and then at 145 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 143 14/32 and then at the contract low of 143 4/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.21.0 and then at 120.25.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 120.05.0 and then at the contract low of 120.01.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early U.S. trading, on a corrective bounce aafter hitting a contract and multi-year low last week. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 90.000 and then at the February high of 90.455. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 89.155 and then at 89.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The bulls have regained upside momentum recently. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at today’s high of $62.74 and then at $63.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $61.63 and then at $61.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were higher overnight. The grain markets are in near-term price uptrends, to suggest more sideways-to-higher price action in the coming days, or longer. Traders will closely examine this morning’s weekly USDA export inspections report.