Tuesday, August 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were again mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and at new record highs when the New York day session begins.
The world marketplace is still buzzing about the U.S. and Mexico coming to terms on a trade agreement. World stock markets rallied on the news. Some now reckon the U.S. will get to work on agreements with its other major trading partners, including the EU and China. However, President Trump has indicated he’s in no rush to make a deal with China.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index weaker. The greenback bulls are fading a bit now. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $69.00 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the advance economic indicators report, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, the consumer confidence index and the Richmond Fed business survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer and hit a contract and record high in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid an uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 2,903.75 and then at 2,920.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Monday’s low of 2,876.75 and then at 2,860.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher and hit a contract and record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 7,600.00 and then at 7,650.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 7,550.00 and then at Monday’s low of 7,498.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage amid an uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 144 14/32 and then at 145 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 144 5/32 and then at 144 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.09.0 and then at 120.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 120.05.0 and then at 120.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly down and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading today. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 94.405 and then at Monday’s high of 94.795. Shorter-term support is seen at 94.000 and then at 93.750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have some upside momentum. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $69.31 and then at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $68.34 and then at $68.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were narrowly mixed overnight. Not much new early this week. Bears are in control amid big U.S. soybean and corn crop potential. Also, beneficial rains have fallen in the U.S. Corn Belt recently as the crops near maturity. Any positive news on U.S.-China trade talks would likely boost the grains quickly.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff