Monday, April 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.
U.S. Treasury bond yields are on the rise again early this week, with the yield on the 10-year note nearing 3%, which is a multi-year high. Such suggests rising inflationary pressures, but not yet at problematic levels.
The key “outside markets” on Monday morning see the U.S. dollar index trading higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading just above $68.00 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index, the U.S. flash services and manufacturing PMIs, and existing home sales.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking from recent gains. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 2,684.75 and then at 2,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at last week’s low of 2,659.75 and then at 2,650.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
June Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly weaker on mild profit taking. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 6,720.00 and then at 6,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at last week’s low of 6,646.00 and then at 6,600.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a nearly two-month low. Bears have good downside momentum to suggest more selling pressure in the near term. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 143 even and then at 143 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 142 9/32 and then at 142 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a contract and multi-year low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.16.0 and then at 119.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 119.06.5 and then at 119.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is higher and hit a nearly two-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 90.490 and then at 91.000. Shorter-term support is seen at 90.295 and then at 90.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on profit-taking from recent good gains. Bulls are still in solid near-term technical control. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $68.45 and then at $69.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $67.50 and then at $67.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were firmer overnight. Traders will closely examine this morning’s weekly USDA export inspections report. Farmers will be in their fields, full force later this week, planting corn and preparing for soybean planting.