Monday, March 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Investors and traders to start the trading week are more focused on better global economic growth prospects and the pandemic being tamped down by rising vaccination levels, and less focused on rising government bond yields that have at times recently produced speed bumps for the stock market bulls. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.613%.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday the U.S. inflation risk is small and manageable. The Federal Reserve’s two-day Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and new U.S. economic projections. While no change in U.S. monetary policy is expected at this week’s meeting, traders will be closely scrutinizing wording on the Fed’s economic growth and inflation prospects.
In overnight news, China’s retail sales in January and February were up 34% from the same period last year. Industrial output was up 35% in the period. The data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics underscores notions the world’s second-largest economy is roaring full speed ahead.
The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices firmer and trading around $65.88 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is a bit higher early today.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Empire State manufacturing survey and Treasury international capital data. The pace of U.S. data really picks up Tuesday, including the FOMC meeting.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are modestly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s record high of 3,949.00 and then at 3,975.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 3,900.75 and then at 3,883.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,000.00 and then at last week’s high of 13,110.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,682.50 and then at 12,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and near the contract low set last Friday. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 156 16/32 and then at 157 even. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 155 12/32 and then at 155 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and near Friday’s contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.00.5 and then at 132.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 131.23.0 and then at 131.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.2000 and then at last week’s high of 1.2014. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 1.1933 and then at 1.1900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $66.40 and then at $67.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $65.00 and then at $64.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures are mixed to lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Not much new. It could be that markets will pause and remain choppy and sideways up until the March 31 USDA planting intentions and quarterly grains stocks reports. Grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are still mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff