Monday, May 30–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor attitudes are more upbeat to start the U.S. trading week. Republican and Democratic leaders have agreed upon a deal to raise the U.S. government’s debt limit. House and Senate votes on the matter are likely to occur this week.
In overnight news, the World Gold Council reported its survey shows 24% of central banks intend to increase their gold holdings in 2023. Reasons include higher inflation, geopolitical turmoil and interest rate worries.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker on a corrective pullback after hitting a two-month high last week. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $71.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.725%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the monthly house price index, the S&P Core Logic house indexes, the consumer confidence index and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and hit a nine-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,300.00 and then at 4,325.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,250.00 and then at 4,225.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a contract high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 14,800.00 and then at 14,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,500.00 and then at 14,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher on short covering after hitting a 2.5-month low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 128 even and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at 126 16/32 and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher on short covering after hitting a nine-week low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 114.00.0 and then at 114.08.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 113.16.0 and then at 113.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are near steady after hitting a nine-week low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0850 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0740 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
July Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $73.55 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $70.67 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were steady to lower overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections and crop progress reports. The near-term technical postures for soybeans, meal, bean oil, and wheat corn futures are all still overall bearish. However, corn bulls have gained momentum to suggest a market bottom is in place.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff