Global stock markets were mostly up in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Upbeat U.S. corporate earnings are driving share prices higher, as traders and investors are at present looking past the worrisome rise in Covid-19 infection in the U.S.
There are also slightly increased hopes of another U.S. government financial aid package to Americans sooner. The Republican members of the Senate have agreed with the Trump administration on a measure worth around $1 trillion to send to the Democrats for their consideration. The Democrats want more funds, however. The European Union earlier this week agreed on a big spending package to help out its citizens and businesses.
Gold and silver prices continue on a bullish roll Thursday, as gold set a nearly nine-year high and is closing in on its all-time high of $1,920.70, basis Comex futures. Silver prices have gained over $3.00 an ounce just this week and hit a 6.5-year high overnight. More upside is likely for both metals in the near term.
The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $42.25 a barrel and near this week’s 4.5-month high. The U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading and hit another 4.5-month low. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently around the 0.59% level.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, leading economic indicators, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a five-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a four-month-old price uptrend in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,300.00 and then at 3,325.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at the overnight low of 3,258.50 and then at Tuesday’s low of 3,227.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and close to the record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control, to suggest more upside in the near term. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 11,058.50 and then at 11,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 10,761.25 and then at 10,650. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 181 even and then at the July high of 181 14/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 180 16/32 and then at this week’s low of 179 22/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the July high of 139.22.5 and then at the March high of 139.25.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 139.16.5 and then at this week’s low of 139.10.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are higher and near this week’s 12-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1616 and then at 1.1650. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 1.1520 and then at 1.1500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. A gentle price uptrend on the daily chart is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $42.36 and then at this week’s high of $42.51. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $41.14 and then at $40.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
US grain futures are mixed but mostly a bit weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Focus today will be on the weekly USDA export sales report and how much grain China purchased. The weather in the U.S. Corn Belt is still benign. That’s bearish, especially for corn. Soybean futures are maintaining a near-term price uptrend but bulls need to show more power soon to keep it alive. Same goes for wheat. My bias is that if corn continues to languish, the upside will be limited for soybeans and wheat.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff