Thursday, November 16–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European markets were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to steady to slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins, after hitting multi-week highs on Wednesday. Risk appetite in the marketplace has up-ticked this week after tamer U.S. inflation reports were released that suggest the Federal Reserve is done with its interest-rate-increase cycle. Also, several weeks into the Israel-Hamas war, there has so far been no major involvement from other countries, including the U.S. and Iran. However, that situation remains very uneasy.
In other news, U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met Wednesday afternoon during the APEC Summit in San Francisco to discuss various geopolitical, trade, and economic issues. Both leaders recognized the need for cooperation to stabilize those issues. Biden aimed to ease tensions with China without appearing weak on the matter. Xi sought foreign investment and export markets to counter China’s economic challenges, including a real-estate crash and excessive debt.
A stopgap spending measure to avoid a U.S. government shutdown on Friday and fund the government into early 2024 was agreed upon by the U.S. Congress and is now headed to President Biden’s desk, allowing U.S. lawmakers to prepare for negotiations on full-year appropriations between the two chambers. Biden is expected to sign the measure into law.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $76.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.496%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey and Treasury international capital data.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down after hitting a two-month high Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,541.25 and then at 4,566.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,465.00 and then at 4,430.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are down a bit after hitting a 3.5-month high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 16,049.50 and then at 16,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,700.00 and then at 15,600.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 115 24/32 and then at 116 even. Shorter-term support lies at 114 even and then at 113 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 109.12.5 and then at 109.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 108.14.0 and then at 108.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0946 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0850 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at this week’s high of $79.77. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the November low of $74.91 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Grain futures prices were down in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Not much new this week. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, although my bias is that those markets have put in price bottoms, or are very close to doing so. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets are trending up.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.