Monday, April 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Many global stock markets were closed for the Easter holiday Monday, as well as for a holiday in Asia. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The Dow and S&P 500 indexes are at or near record highs. Trader and investor risk appetite is upbeat to start the trading week, following a very strong U.S. jobs report last Friday (when U.S. markets were closed) that showed a gain of 916,000 in non-farm payrolls in March. Also, President Biden is pushing his U.S. economic rescue package, called the American Jobs Plan, at a cost of $2.25 trillion over eight years.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are lower trading around $60.25 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.72%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the ISM New York report on business, the U.S. services purchasing managers index, the employment trends index, and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and just a bit below last week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 4,038.00 and then at 4,065.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at 3,964.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,393.00 and then at 13,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,304.25 and then at 13,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 156 6/32 and then at last week’s high of 156 26/32. Shorter-term support lies at 155 even and then at 154 20/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and close to the recent contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 131.04.5 and then at 131.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 130.26.0 and then at 130.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1804 and then at 1.1850. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.1721 and then at 1.1700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $61.50 and then at last week’s high of $62.27. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $60.00 and then at $59.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls are basking in last week’s very bullish USDA planting intentions report. Wheat remains the follower. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff