Tuesday, September 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed in quieter overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. On tap Tuesday is the U.S. consumer price index report for August. The CPI is forecast up 0.4% after a rise of 0.5% in July. Year-on-year the CPI is seen up 5.4% in August—the same as July.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher, hit a five-week high, and trading around $71.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.341%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly chain store and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, and the NFIB small business index.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a longer-term uptrend on the charts. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 4,483.50 and then at 4,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,434.50 and then at 4,415.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 15,557.50 and then at the contract high of 15,702.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 15,342.75 and then at 15,250.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 163 9/32 and then at last week’s high of 163 27/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 162 18/32 and then at 162 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 133.12.5 and then at last week’s high of 133.19.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 133.00.0 and then at 132.28.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded and bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1851 and then at 1.1872. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 1.1790 and then at 1.1750. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit another five-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $71.14 and then at $72.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at Monday’s low of $69.51. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. If the grain markets can show good price strength this week, such would suggest that “harvest lows” may have come early this year. But right now the corn and soybean market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage and the wheat bulls have faded, too. Seasonal weakness is still a negative element for the grains, amid the just-completed U.S. wheat harvest and the soon-to-begin soybean and corn harvests.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff