Wednesday, April 12–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mixed but mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is awaiting the U.S. data point of the week with Wednesday morning’s consumer price index report for March. The CPI is expected to show an annual rise of 5.1%, compared to a rise of 6.0% in the February report. The FOMC minutes are also due out this afternoon.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $81.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.460%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, real earnings, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the monthly Treasury budget statement.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the April high of 4,171.75 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at the April low of 4,096.50 and then at 4,078.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,208.75 and then at the April high of 13,348.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the April low of 13,953.25 and then at 13,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 133 even and then at this week’s high of 133 19/32. Shorter-term support lies at 131 16/32 and then at 131 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 115.16.0 and then at this week’s high of 115.31.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.00.0 and then at 114.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at the April high of 1.1019. Shorter-term support is seen at the Tuesday’s low of 1.0903 and then at this week’s low of 1.0874. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and did hit a 2.5-month high overnight. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $82.50 and then at the January high of $83.04. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at last week’s low of $79.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer overnight. Soybean and corn market bulls have the chart advantage. SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the slight chart edge amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Focus of grain traders is on weather in the U.S. Midwest and mid-South as corn and soybean planting gets under way.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff